For reasons of geographical proximity and historical connections, Greece has a compelling interest in the Balkan region. In the late 1980s and the early 1990s, several factors have radically altered the basic premises of Greece's traditional Balkan policy. Those factors are Turkey's increasing Balkan activism, regional political and economic instability, the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the prospect of revisions in its southern border, and the strategic reorientation of Bulgaria.

Besides the other burdens on the Greek-Turkish relationship, Turkey's perceived desire to become a regional power in the Balkans is a security worry for Greece. In the Greek view, the existence of Muslim communities and minorities in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Bulgaria, and FYROM might tempt Ankara to develop a "Turkish network" in the Balkans that would isolate Greece and Bulgaria in this area.

Greece's fears of outside orchestration of events in the Balkan region have inflated the "Macedonia issue" into a far wider international concern than normally would be warranted by a small, land-locked entity such as FYROM. This distraction has been particularly worrisome because Greece's responses to the FYROM situation (as well as its divergent views on Bosnia and Serbia) have created animosity toward Greece within the EU (see Greece and the European Community; The Balkans , ch. 4).

Greece seeks stability in the Balkans, and, as the Balkan state that is comparatively the most affluent, stable, democratic, and Western-oriented, it is ideally situated to play the role of interlocutor in the region. But it is unclear whether such a role is now possible, given Greece's festering disputes with Turkey and its strained relations with the EU.

Greece's approach to its security interests in the Balkans has not been influenced by irredentist claims on its neighbors. Although the Megali Idea (Great Idea) of including all Greeks in the Greek state played an important role in foreign policy before World War II, the Greek government has renounced all territorial claims on southern Albania, still called Northern Epirus by Greek nationalists. An important national security consideration in this region, however, is the possibility that violent ethnic hostilities in FYROM could bring outside powers into the region or trigger a large-scale refugee movement into Greek territory. In a period of recession and high unemployment, large numbers of illegal workers place extra pressure on the struggling Greek economy (see Emigration and Immigration , ch. 2).

In the 1980s, Greece's security doctrine deemphasized the Warsaw Pact as a security threat, in spite of the shared border with Bulgaria, the Soviet Union's most loyal Warsaw Pact ally. Because of its defense relationship with the United States, complemented by participation in NATO, Athens could afford to devote relatively minor resources and energy toward security measures to its north. In an age of mutual nuclear vulnerability, it was correctly assumed, neither superpower would tolerate a regional interbloc conflict in the Balkans.

In the Cold War era, Greek-Bulgarian consultations on security matters were encouraged by the common threat felt by both countries from Turkish military power and political interests in the Balkans (Bulgarian-Turkish relations were particularly difficult as a result of Bulgaria's policy toward its large Turkish minority in the mid-1980s). In this context, commentators began to discuss an Athens-Sofia axis in the late 1980s. More recently Greece has become concerned about Bulgaria's potential role in encouraging integrative policies between Bulgaria and FYROM, and is aware that political relations between Sofia and Ankara have improved considerably since Bulgaria ended its status as a client-state of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, the prospects for a true Turkish-Bulgarian rapprochement seemed remote in the mid-1990s, and Greek-Bulgarian relations began to improve again as Bulgaria adopted a more balanced approach in its relations with its two NATO neighbors. For example, in 1994 Greece and Bulgaria agreed on construction of an oil pipeline through Bulgaria and Greece, connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean and bypassing Turkey.

The deepening crisis in former Yugoslavia concerns Athens for economic and strategic reasons. First, there is the fear that Balkan instability, either limited to former Yugoslavia or more general, will inhibit the integration of Greece into the European mainstream. The economic dimensions of this problem are quite significant. Until the collapse of Yugoslavia in 1991, Greece had relied on road and rail communications through that country for some 40 percent of its trade with the European market. Prolonged disruption of this vital link has crippled that connection, as also did the imposition of UN sanctions against the rump Yugoslav state (consisting of Montenegro and Serbia) in 1992. In 1994 Greek authorities estimated that sanctions have caused losses of up to US$10 million per day, although Greece is known to have violated the embargo.

Also of concern to Greece is the fear that ethnic violence between the 90 percent Albanian Muslim majority and the Montenegrin and Serbian minority in the Serbian province of Kosovo might spill over into adjacent territory. Were an outbreak of Albanian separatism to include the neighboring Albanian-populated Tetovo region of FYROM, Serbian efforts to subdue Albanian Kosovan separatism might also cross the frontier, bringing FYROM into the conflict. But even if hostilities were to be contained within Kosovo, the movement of thousands of refugees to Albania or farther south might cause ethnic Greeks living in southern Albania to flee to Greece. The increasing role of Albanians in secessionism within FYROM, where they now constitute about 30 percent of the population, could further destabilize the area. Great population movements southward could have serious consequences for Greece as well as for the whole region.

Data as of December 1994

NOTE: The information regarding Greece on this page is re-published from The Library of Congress Country Studies and the CIA World Factbook. No claims are made regarding the accuracy of Greece Security in the Balkans information contained here. All suggestions for corrections of any errors about Greece Security in the Balkans should be addressed to the Library of Congress and the CIA.