12 July
2005 ''Intelligence Brief:
Shanghai Cooperation Organization''
vershadowed in the
Western press by the G8 summit of leading industrialized nations and
the complications to it caused by the London transit bombings,
another summit -- the July 5 meetings in Astana, Kazakhstan of the
heads of government of the six members of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (S.C.O.) -- promised to have greater geostrategic
significance than the more widely reported events.
Created
with its present membership of China, Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2001, the origins of the
S.C.O. date back to 1996 when Beijing initiated the Shanghai Five,
which included all the current S.C.O. members except for Uzbekistan.
The official purpose of the alliance, according to its founding
declaration, is to form a comprehensive network of cooperation among
the member states, including military security, economic
development, trade and cultural exchange.
Translated into
geostrategic terms, the S.C.O. arises from a confluence of interests
among the major power centers of China and Russia, and the former
Soviet republics of Central Asia, with the exception of
Turkmenistan, which pursues a foreign policy of studied neutrality
and isolation.
The overall strategic aim of the alliance for
Beijing and Moscow is curbing Washington's influence in Central Asia
in order to establish a joint sphere of influence there. For
Beijing, the most important goal is to get a lock on the
considerable energy resources of the region, but it also seeks
markets for its goods, outlets for investment and collaboration
against Islamist movements. Moscow has leagued with Beijing in order
to restore some of its influence over its "near abroad." The regimes
of the Central Asian states want support for their survival against
opposition movements, economic development assistance and increased
trade and investment.
Up until the June summit, the S.C.O.'s
effectiveness as a strategic alliance had been limited by the
reluctance of the Central Asian states to abandon their
multi-directional foreign policies geared to gaining maximum
advantage by playing off the West -- particularly the United States
-- against the incipient Moscow-Beijing axis. The picture changed in
2004 and 2005 as the result of successful regime changes in the
former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine, and, most
importantly, Kyrgyzstan, which awakened Central Asian leaders --
including the new regime in Kyrgyzstan, which faces determined
opposition -- to their vulnerability.
Realizing that
Washington and Brussels would prefer pro-Western market-oriented
regimes to the authoritarian, clan-based and crony systems currently
in place in the region, Central Asian leaders began to perceive that
multi-directionality might be a luxury too expensive to afford, and
moved towards casting their lots with Moscow and Beijing through the
S.C.O., paving the way for the alliance to act for the first time
with political effect. The key figure in the shift was Uzbek
President Islam Karimov, who had faced Western censure for his
violent suppression of an Islamist rebellion against his regime in
the city of Andijan May 13-14, 2005.
Geopolitical Outcomes
of the S.C.O. Summit
The path to the summit was smoothed
and cleared by a meeting in Moscow between Chinese President Hu
Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 1. Advancing
their vision of geopolitical multipolarity, which includes removing
or at least diminishing Washington's influence in Central Asia, the
two leaders issued a joint declaration on "world order" rejecting
efforts by any powers to achieve a "monopoly in world affairs,"
divide the world into "leaders and followers," and "impose models of
social development" on other countries. The declaration was clearly
aimed at perceived attempts by Washington at regime change that
would establish a world of market democracies arbitrated by U.S.
power.
With the Sino-Russian declaration setting its theme,
the report issued at the end of the S.C.O. summit and signed by all
participants included a clause rejecting attempts at "monopolizing
or dominating international affairs" and insisting on
"non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states."
Applying the general principle of non-interference
specifically, the S.C.O. declaration called for a timetable to be
set for the closure of U.S. military bases in Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan that support Washington's operations in Afghanistan, but
are also elements of Washington's strategy of creating a permanent
arc of bases spanning East Africa and East Asia. Following the
summit, the Uzbek Foreign Ministry issued a statement that the U.S.
Khanabad airbase could serve no other purpose than support
operations for the Afghan intervention: "Any other prospects for a
U.S. military presence in Uzbekistan were not considered by the
Uzbek side." Washington responded that were Tashkent to insist on
closure of the Khanabad base, the U.S. had other
options.
Satisfying Beijing's interests, the S.C.O. also
became the first regional bloc to oppose the bid by Japan, Brazil,
Germany and India to enlarge the United Nations Security Council's
permanent membership. Calling for consensus on U.N. reforms after
careful consultation, the S.C.O. declaration rejected deadlines for
those reforms and early voting on draft proposals.
Despite
the slap at New Delhi, India, along with Pakistan and Iran, sought
and was granted observer status in the S.C.O., an acknowledgment of
the organization's growing geostrategic importance. Joining
Mongolia, the three new observers see the S.C.O. as a permanent
presence that will increasingly affect their security and economic
interests.
The Bottom Line
After an initial
period of halting growth, the S.C.O. has emerged as an alliance
serving as an effective vehicle for Beijing's and Moscow's
geopolitical aims.
Look for the alliance to continue to
further the interests of the Moscow-Beijing axis as long as those
two power centers are careful to maintain their accord and the
regimes in Central Asia depend on the axis for political support. As
the S.C.O. grows in strength, Washington's influence in Central Asia
will diminish.
Report Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
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